British Police Built a Sprawling Crime-Prediction Machine. Some Results Couldn't Be Trusted As UK police embrace the AI revolution, a WIRED investigation reveals the messy inside story of one region's experiment with predictive analytics. The Think Family Database holds records on close to half a million people who live in the city of Bristol, England. For many years, few of them knew anything about it. Launched in 2016 by the Bristol City Council and the regional Avon and Somerset Police, the database has stored all manner of sensitive information--police intelligence reports, housing status, mental health records, teenage pregnancies, enrollment in parenting courses, free school meals. On top of this sensitive data, officials built machine-learning models to assign scores to thousands of adults and children. They hoped to build what they called a "picture of threat, harm, and risk" in the region. At an event in early 2022 to help officials tackle child exploitation crimes, one police data scientist described part of the approach this way: "I essentially dump all that data in a big bucket and stir it with a data-science spatula, and we come out with a lovely risk score for everybody." This risk scoring inside the Think Family Database was just one part of Avon and Somerset Police's sprawling predictive analytics program.

Premise selection is a critical bottleneck in interactive theorem proving, particularly with large libraries. Existing methods, primarily relying on semantic embeddings, often fail to effectively leverage the rich structural information inherent in mathematical expressions. This paper proposes a novel framework for premise selection based on the structure of expression trees. The framework enhances premise selection ability by explicitly utilizing the structural information of Lean expressions and by means of the simplified tree representation obtained via common subexpression elimination. Our method employs a multi-stage filtering pipeline, incorporating structure-aware similarity measures including the Weisfeiler-Lehman kernel, tree edit distance, $\texttt{Const}$ node Jaccard similarity, and collapse-match similarity. An adaptive fusion strategy combines these metrics for refined ranking. To handle large-scale data efficiently, we incorporate cluster-based search space optimization and structural compatibility constraints. Comprehensive evaluation on a large theorem library extracted from Mathlib4 demonstrates that our method significantly outperforms existing premise retrieval tools across various metrics. Experimental analysis, including ablation studies and parameter sensitivity analysis, validates the contribution of individual components and highlights the efficacy of our structure-aware approach and multi-metric fusion.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications.

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and management science. Previous methods rely on a known structural causal model (SCM) or assume the homogeneity of the exogenous variable and strict monotonicity between the outcome and exogenous variable. In this paper, we propose a principled approach for identifying and estimating the counterfactual outcome. We first introduce a simple and intuitive rank preservation assumption to identify the counterfactual outcome without relying on a known structural causal model. Building on this, we propose a novel ideal loss for theoretically unbiased learning of the counterfactual outcome and further develop a kernel-based estimator for its empirical estimation. Our theoretical analysis shows that the rank preservation assumption is not stronger than the homogeneity and strict monotonicity assumptions, and shows that the proposed ideal loss is convex, and the proposed estimator is unbiased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Accurately modeling complex dynamic spatio-temporal systems requires capturing flow-mediated interdependencies and context-sensitive interaction dynamics. Existing methods, predominantly graph-based or attention-driven, rely on similaritydriven connectivity assumptions, neglecting asymmetric flow exchanges that govern system evolution. We propose Spatio-Temporal Flow, a physics-inspired paradigm that explicitly models dynamic node couplings through quantifiable flow transfers governed by conservation principles. Building on this, we design FlowNet, a novel architecture leveraging flow tokens as information carriers to simulate source-todestination transfers via Flow Allocation Modules, ensuring state redistribution aligns with conservation laws. FlowNet dynamically adjusts the interaction radius through an Adaptive Spatial Masking module, suppressing irrelevant noise while enabling context-aware propagation. A cascaded architecture enhances scalability and nonlinear representation capacity. Experiments demonstrate that FlowNet significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches on seven metrics in the modeling of three real-world systems, validating its efficiency and physical interpretability. We establish a principled methodology for modeling complex systems through spatio-temporal flow interactions.

Hierarchical clustering is a powerful tool for exploratory data analysis, organizing data into a tree of clusterings from which a partition can be chosen. This paper generalizes these ideas by proving that, for any reasonable hierarchy, one can optimally solve any center-based clustering objective over it (such as k-means). Moreover, these solutions can be found exceedingly quickly and are themselves necessarily hierarchical. Thus, given a cluster tree, we show that one can quickly access a plethora of new, equally meaningful hierarchies. Just as in standard hierarchical clustering, one can then choose any desired partition from these new hierarchies. We conclude by verifying the utility of our proposed techniques across datasets, hierarchies, and partitioning schemes.

We explore a novel problem in streaming submodular maximization, inspired by the dynamics of news-recommendation platforms. We consider a setting where users can visit a news website at any time, and upon each visit, the website must display up to k news items. User interactions are inherently stochastic: each news item presented to the user is consumed with a certain acceptance probability by the user, and each news item covers certain topics. Our goal is to design a streaming algorithm that maximizes the expected total topic coverage. To address this problem, we establish a connection to submodular maximization subject to a matroid constraint.

Recently, semantically constrained adversarial examples (SemanticAE), which are directly generated from natural language instructions, have become a promising avenue for future research due to their flexible attacking forms, but have not been thoroughly explored yet. To generate SemanticAEs, current methods fall short of satisfactory attacking ability as the key underlying factors of semantic uncertainty in human instructions, such as referring diversity, descriptive incompleteness, and boundary ambiguity, have not been fully investigated. To tackle the issues, this paper develops a multi-dimensional instruction uncertainty reduction (InsUR) framework to generate more satisfactory SemanticAE, i.e., transferable, adaptive, and effective. Specifically, in the dimension of the sampling method, we propose the residual-driven attacking direction stabilization to alleviate the unstable adversarial optimization caused by the diversity of language references. By coarsely predicting the language-guided sampling process, the optimization process will be stabilized by the designed ResAdv-DDIM sampler, therefore releasing the transferable and robust adversarial capability of multi-step diffusion models.

Learning efficient visual representations across heterogeneous unlabeled datasets remains a central challenge in federated learning. Effective federated representations require features that are jointly informative across clients while disentangling clientspecific factors without supervision. We thus introduce FORLA, a novel framework for federated object-centric representation learning and feature adaptation using unsupervised slot attention. At the core of our method is a shared feature adapter, trained collaboratively across clients to adapt features from foundation models, and a shared slot attention module that learns to reconstruct the adapted features.

Imaging systems have traditionally been designed to mimic the human eye and produce visually interpretable measurements.