Data Science
Interview with Thi Kieu Khanh Ho: Time-series anomaly detection
The latest interview in our series with the AAAI/SIGAI Doctoral Consortium participants features Thi Kieu Khanh Ho who is studying time-series anomaly detection. We found out more about her research, and what inspired her to study AI, and what she plans to work on next. Tell us a bit about your PhD -- where are you studying, and what is the topic of your research? I am doing my PhD at McGill University and Mila - Québec AI Institute, in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, supervised by Professor Narges Armanfard. My research focuses on time-series anomaly detection, the problem of teaching AI systems to recognize when something unusual or abnormal is happening in complex, real-world data streams, without relying on large amounts of labeled examples.
Learning Effective Soliton Dynamics from Scattering Data
Minor, Seth, Dukic, Vanja, Bortz, David M.
In such settings, the inverse scattering transform (IST) of Ablowitz, Kaup, Newell, and Segur [2] has enjoyed a rich and successful history, and is now the standard theoretical framework for deriving reduced-order evolution equations for soliton dynamics. Although these derivations are traditionally of an analytical - rather than data-driven - nature, recent work has employed the IST formalism as a tool for experimental data analysis, using the technique to analyze soliton content from empirical measurements [8, 15, 24]. Moreover, recent approaches using alternative parameterization techniques have demonstrated that the learning of reduced-order, interpretable equations of motion for solitons is tenable in a data-driven setting [6, 26, 27]. Despite the success of this recent work, however, little effort has been devoted to developing a data-driven modeling approach based on the IST itself, most likely due to the fact that the framework is fundamentally problem-specific. In this paper, we address the question of whether effective soliton dynamics can be inferred directly from observed scattering data (as opposed to being derived or approximated analytically).
Cloudflare will filter out web crawlers that serve AI companies
The hosting platform wants sites to have more control over how AI companies use their content. Cloudflare has announced plans to automatically block mixed-use web crawlers that index websites for search engines and act as AI agents and trainers at the same time. The company previously offered its customers the optional ability to prevent crawlers from scraping their sites for AI chatbots, but now Cloudflare's stance is becoming more defensive by default. Now that the majority of traffic on the Internet is non-human, we must go further and act faster so that a sustainable ecosystem can emerge, Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO and co-founder shared in a statement. Cloudflare's new tools and partnerships give website owners increased visibility and commercial opportunities and benefit AI companies that have bots with clear and transparent intent.
Approximate full-conformal multi-task regression with reproducing kernels
Razafindrakoto, Davidson Lova, Celisse, Alain, Lacaille, Jérôme
Multi-task regression aims at jointly solving multiple regression problems, called tasks. Compared to solving each task separately, better performances can be achieved as long as the tasks are sufficiently related. Full-conformal prediction is a framework that formulates a data-dependent prediction-region containing the unknown output-vector at any prescribed confidence level. However, explicit computation of this prediction-region is intractable in general since it requires training infinitely many predictors. The present work focuses on multi-task regression in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) of vector-valued functions. This computational issue is addressed by designing an approximating predictionregion containing the full-conformal one. This construction is carried out in two scenarios: piq when the inter-task covariance-matrix is known, and piiq when this matrix is estimated. In terms of volume, the tightness of this approximation is assessed theoretically by means of an upper-bound in the first scenario. It is also empirically proved to improve upon the split-conformal prediction on synthetic data in both scenarios.
Policy Optimization Achieves Data-Dependent Regret Bounds in MDPs with Unknown Transitions
Li, Mingyi, Tsuchiya, Taira, Yamanishi, Kenji
We study policy optimization for online episodic tabular Markov decision processes with unknown transition kernels, aiming for best-of-both-worlds guarantees together with data-dependent regret bounds. Recent work (Dann et al., 2023; Li et al., 2026) has shown that policy optimization can adapt to both adversarial and stochastic losses with first-order, second-order, and path-length bounds, but only under known transitions, leaving open whether such data-dependent guarantees are achievable by policy optimization when the transition kernel is unknown. We resolve this by developing a new algorithm based on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader that attains these guarantees under unknown transitions. The key ingredient is a new design of optimistic $Q$-function estimators together with a data-dependent transition bonus that controls estimator bias through the loss-prediction error. Our analysis further identifies an unavoidable transition-dependent complexity term that captures the intrinsic cost of estimating the transition kernel. As a result, we obtain first-order, second-order, and path-length bounds with the transition-dependent complexity term while simultaneously achieving gap-dependent $\mathrm{polylog}(T)$ regret in the stochastic regime.
Connectivity Estimation using Stochastic Graph Heat Modelling
Goerttler, Stephan, Wu, Min, He, Fei
A growing number of techniques leverage the spatial structures that underlie many real-world datasets. Despite these advances, the complementary task of estimating spatial structures and understanding their role within these techniques has often been overlooked. In neurophysiological data analysis specifically, numerous methods exist to estimate brain connectivity, but most are not explicitly model-based, dynamic, multivariate, or directed. To address these limitations, we previously introduced noise-driven heat modelling on graphs for neurophysiological connectivity estimation. In this study, we extend this framework by relaxing earlier noise assumptions and adding regularisation to improve robustness. We also develop a simulation procedure to characterise and evaluate our technique in a controlled setting. Finally, we demonstrate that the technique is able to capture meaningful spatial structure across two experiments, each using two real-world datasets. The explicit model formulation of our connectivity estimator has the potential to improve the interpretability of graph-based techniques across a wide range of applications. The code implementing our method is available at https://github.com/sgoerttler/Heat_Connectivity.
What Drives the Inlier-Memorization Effect? A Theory of Outlier Detection via Early Training Dynamics
Outlier detection (OD) aims to identify anomalous instances by learning the underlying structure of normal data (inliers), and is particularly challenging in fully unsupervised settings where no information about anomalies is available during training. Recent advances have leveraged the inlier-memorization (IM) effect, a phenomenon in which deep models memorize inlier patterns earlier than those of outliers, as a powerful signal for distinguishing outliers. However, despite its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of the IM effect remains limited. In this work, we present a theoretical study of the IM effect. Focusing on a simple autoencoder, we show that, under mild assumptions, the model can successfully memorize inliers while failing to memorize outliers during certain stages of early training. In particular, we characterize not only the emergence of the IM effect, but also its strength and persistence, and analyze how these properties depend on the data distribution and parameter initialization. In addition, building on these insights, we derive simple yet practical guidelines for enhancing the IM effect, including data preprocessing and parameter initialization schemes, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the ADBench datasets. Our findings provide a theoretical foundation for the IM effect and offer actionable directions for improving IM-based outlier detection methods.
Decision-Value Attribution in Predict-then-Optimize Systems
Ziliaskopoulos, Konstantinos, Vinel, Alexander, Smith, Alice E.
Predictive models are increasingly embedded in operational decision-making, yet standard explanation methods typically explain forecasts rather than the decisions those forecasts induce. This distinction is important in predict-then-optimize systems: large forecast changes may leave the optimizer's action unchanged, while small changes can alter the selected decision and its realized value. We propose Decision Value Attribution (DVA), a Shapley-based framework for attributing the value of a fixed prediction--optimization pipeline. The framework defines cooperative games whose payoff is the downstream decision value, allowing the players to be information sources, optimization or design parameters, or both. We present three variants: InfoDVA attributes value to features, DesignDVA attributes value to operational configurations, and Decision-Value Interactions (DVI) quantifies how information and design jointly create value. We further distinguish post-DVA, which evaluates decisions using realized outcomes, from pre-DVA, which evaluates decisions under the model's full prediction. This separation turns attribution into a decision-level diagnostic of whether the model's operational beliefs align with realized performance. The resulting attributions are expressed in the units of the operational objective and decompose the gain or loss relative to a baseline. Case studies in electricity storage arbitrage and emergency medical service coverage show that predictive explanations can be poor proxies for operational value, that DVA can guide targeted information-control interventions, and that optimization configurations determine when predictive information is decision-relevant.
TimeLAVA: Learning-Agnostic Valuation for Time Series Data
Liu, Wenqin, Quan, Weizhi, Zuo, Aoqi, Gao, Erdun, Nguyen, Vu, Sejdinovic, Dino, Bondell, Howard, Gong, Mingming
Data valuation quantifies the intrinsic quality of individual samples to enable principled data curation, quality control, and robust learning. For time series in critical domains such as healthcare, finance, and industrial monitoring, effective valuation methods are essential yet fundamentally lacking. Existing approaches are either model-dependent, limiting their generalizability, or designed for i.i.d. data and thus fail to capture temporal dependencies, multi-scale patterns, and non-stationary dynamics inherent to sequential data. We introduce TimeLAVA, a learning-agnostic framework that values temporal segments by their marginal contribution to minimizing distributional discrepancy between evaluated and reference data. At its core is a novel Selective Wavelet-based Wasserstein discrepancy combining multi-scale wavelet transforms for temporal localization with unbalanced optimal transport for robustness to distributional shifts. Segment values are efficiently computed via sensitivity analysis without requiring model training and aggregated into point-wise scores. We provide theoretical guarantees linking valuation to model-agnostic generalization and prove bounded sensitivity to outlier contamination. Extensive experiments across anomaly detection, data pruning, and label noise detection demonstrate that TimeLAVA produces significantly more informative value scores than existing methods on diverse real-world datasets.
I-BBS: Coordinate-Free Inference of Latent Sub-Manifolds Using Random Distance Matrix Theory
Bogomolny, Bohigas and Schmit (BBS) found that the spectrum of the pairwise distance matrix on N points sampled from a smooth d-dimensional manifold encodes a signature of the underlying geometry. We develop I-BBS (Inference-BBS), a coordinate-free method that identifies a low-dimensional latent sub-manifold embedded in a high-dimensional ambient distance matrix alone, without accessing an ambient high-dimensional vector space. It therefore applies even when that space is only partly observable or undefined. We model the ambient embedding by two classes of generative noise, model-based and model-free. The noise mixes the latent signal with off-manifold components, so the eigenvalues reorganise collectively and the latent geometry cannot be read off eigenvalue by eigenvalue. We recover it instead from two integer-stable signatures that survive the noise: the multiplicity of the top non-Perron multiplet, which fixes $d$, and a parameter-free law for how the multiplet positions shrink as the noise grows. On synthetic spheres $S^1$, $S^2$ and $S^3$ these integer signatures are far more stable under noise than the continuous spectral slope, and a blind test recovers both the manifold and the noise model from a single distance matrix. Applications to neural-network representations and to the dynamic training regime are developed in two companion papers.